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Havde jeg været hjemme ville jeg have læst Putins tale tidligere og forstået før. Det, han taler om, er det, Sovjetunionen forsøgte at gøre fra 1933 og frem: Nemlig at stoppe Hitler, før han gik i gang. Denne gang er Rusland i stand til at gøre det af sig selv. Med andre ord føler Putin, at han laver et forebyggende angreb for at stoppe juni 1941. Dette er meget alvorligt og indikerer, at russerne vil fortsætte, indtil de føler, at de trygt kan stoppe.
Jeg tror, at jeg begynder at se omridset af, hvad de prøver at gøre. Husk på, at målene om at afmilitarisere og afnazificere er ret store. Jeg tror, at Putin og kompagni har besluttet at gøre dem grundigt, og det er årsagen til tropperne på jorden.
At the large end, the grand strategy, is the destruction of NATO and the so-called New World Order. Scott Ritter has explained this in his piece. The "new" new world order will be that as described in the joint Chinese-Russian statement I have discussed elsewhere.
It will be obvious that NATO is useless and its friendship worthless. In fact, NATO/Western support is dangerous because it makes you think you have something when you actually have nothing. In a week it will be clear to all who can think that Washington and its minions cared nothing for Ukrainians - they were a sharp stick to poke the Bear with. Many will notice.
At the next level down, the strategy, the aim is to make the Kiev government an offer it can't refuse. Essentially the demand will be, as I believe Lavrov has outlined, a Ukraine that is neutral, the nazis removed from power, and with a serious degree of autonomy given to its many minorities. Failing that, I think we will see Novorossiya as an independent force and Ukraine subjected to periodic winnowings. On a more positive note, this would allow Zelinsky to become the president he was actually elected to be. Furthermore, it is worth pointing out that the Ukrainian Declaration of Independence states that it should be a neutral country. The desire to get into NATO is the result of Nuland's 5 billion dollars of "democracy assistance".
Moving down to the operational level, I believe Mariupol is going to become very important. First it appears to be the main nest of Azov which is the most powerful nazi grouping. Second, with Russian forces coming from the east, LDPR forces coming from the west and Russian forces coming in the rear, there is the opportunity to form a cauldron. The forces trapped inside the cauldron (котёл) will be running short of supplies, have no air cover and have their command-and-control seriously degraded; they can be left to come to their senses and take the offer of putting down their weapons and going home.
Putin in his most recent statement has made it clear that he regards the Ukrainians as the victims of a coup and therefore innocent of the crimes. One would expect Russian intelligence to have a very good appreciation of who supports them and who does not.
Being in a hotel, I have the opportunity to waste my time watching CNN. I am truly fascinated by how completely clueless the so-called experts, generals, politicians, that they have on are about this. They have no understanding of the Russian motives, they have no conception of what is actually going on, and they can't see what is in front of their faces. My personal favourite is the US senator that says Russia is running out of food because it's a communist country and therefore needs to conquer more agricultural land. This is a man whose office is bigger than your house, has a staff of dozens with a huge budget and that's what he thinks is going on.
The new new world order was born two days ago.
Kommentar: The Russian military operation in Ukraine is a very important time marker: it is a first time anyone has delivered such a severe blow to the empire, which is already in decline. After this, nothing will ever be the same.
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