vaccine efficacy graph covid
De sidste to uger har bragt tre nye undersøgelser, der har fundet negativ effekt for to vaccinedoser, hvilket betyder, at de vaccinerede er mere tilbøjelige til at blive smittet end de uvaccinerede. Disse er undersøgelsesresultater, ikke rå data, så de er blevet justeret for forskellige skævheder og forstyrrelser, hvilket gør det sværere at afvise dem som unormale eller skæve.

Den første er en pre-print undersøgelse fra Danmark, offentliggjort den 23. december, som undersøgte næsten alle PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2-infektioner i Danmark fra den 20. november til den 12. december og undersøgte dem for at se, om det var sandsynligt de var Omicron varianten.

Ved at sammenligne vaccinationsstatus for de inficerede fandt forskerne en vaccineeffektivitet mod Omicron-varianten på minus-76,5% for Pfizer og minus-39,3% for Moderna tre måneder efter dobbeltvaccination (se diagrammet ovenfor), hvilket betyder, at de dobbeltvaccinerede var betydelig større sandsynlighed for at blive smittet end uvaccinerede.

De fandt, at vaccineeffektiviteten mod Omicron var signifikant lavere end mod Delta, med Pfizer-vaccineeffektiviteten på 53,8 % og Moderna på 65 % mod Delta efter tre måneder. De rapporterede, at en tredje dosis Pfizer fik vaccineeffektiviteten mod Omicron tilbage til 54,6 %, i det mindste i en måned. De fulde resultater er i tabellen nedenfor:


Kommentar: Delvist oversat af Sott.net fra As three more studies show NEGATIVE vaccine effectiveness, when will health authorities face up to what the data is telling us?


vaccine efficacy covid table
© Hansen et al
The latest vaccine effectiveness study from the UKHSA confirms these results. Against Omicron, the UKHSA reports zero or negative vaccine effectiveness from a double-dose of all three vaccines (AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna) after five months. The third dose takes it up again, but only into the 40-60% range, and dropping fast.
covid vaccine efficacy study
© AstraZeneca
covid vaccine efficacy study
© Pfizer
covid vaccine efficacy study
© Moderna
A new study in Eurosurveillance from Norway also backs up the observation of negative vaccine effectiveness against Omicron, with a higher proportion of those who tested positive in the particular outbreak in the study being double-vaccinated than those who did not test positive (98% versus 93%).

Some studies had already found negative vaccine effectiveness against Delta, in line with the unadjusted figures from the UKHSA, though many people had dismissed these results as anomalous or biased. With Omicron, the reports of negative efficacy are becoming impossible to ignore, with even the UKHSA publishing graphs showing it after three months on two doses. At some point, health authorities are going to need to grapple with what the data is showing on this and stop pretending it isn't there.