hezbollah
Efter mere end syv års krig med det mål at udskifte det syriske regime, er målet nu blevet Hezbollah. Men spørgsmålet forbliver: efter fiaskoen i 2006 krigen, hvad kan denne organisations fjender gøre for at opnå deres mål?

Hezbollah's Generalsekretær Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah sagde i sin seneste tale at "Hezbollah er stærkere end den israelske hær". Israel svarede på udfordringen ved at vise en øvelse med Golani Brigaden og den 7. Væbnede Brigade, i tilstedeværelse af stabschef, Gadi Eisenkot, der simulerede en krig mod Hezbollah. Øvelsen fandt sted efter den 36. Divisions ordinære militærøvelse for at "forbedre koordinationen og paratheden i tilfælde af krig".

I en meddelelse, der indikerede at den Israelske hær ikke ville skelne mellem civile og militære, blev det meddelt at Israel har bygget en ny træningsbase i de besatte Golanhøjder, øvelsesområdet Snir, for at simulere libanesiske landsbyer. Disse landsbyer, der skal ligne Hezbollah landsbyer, er tænkt som værende af den type, som Israelske soldater kunne møde i en kampsituation, hvis der gives ordre til en invasion af Libanon.

På samme måde har Hezbollah for at forberede sig til krig bygget det, der skal forestille Israelske landsbyer ved grænsen mellem Libanon og Syrien. Sayyed Nasrallah har lovet at flytte krigen udenfor Libanons grænser og har bedt sine mænd om at forberede sig til kamp på "fjendegrund", hvis Hezbollah bliver påtvunget en krig.


Kommentar: Delvist oversat af Sott.net Operation Destroy Syria Has Failed - Next Target: Hezbollah


hezbollah
Israel's ongoing repetitive threats against Lebanon and Hezbollah are nothing new to Sayyed Nasrallah, who doesn't give undue weight to these continuous menaces. In fact, he keeps himself informed about all news related to Israel, the Middle East and the world events of interest to him. A special team made of tens of translators and media expert collect daily all the news from open sources and keep the Hezbollah leader informed, as do his intelligence services, represented in various countries, and his own private contacts with allies he regularly meets.

He is not unfamiliar with reservist Major General Yitzhak Brik, the Israeli Army commissioner for the rights of soldiers, who talks of a serious crisis in an army that has become a "mediocre organisation suffering from overburdening and exhaustion".

Brik said top officials sell a false image (of the Army) that does not correspond to reality. "We have become a group of cowards. There is a serious crisis of motivation among young officers".

The former head of the Israeli special service Nativ, Yaakov Kedmi, said that "the motivation to serve in the military has been reduced. Israeli society is no longer willing to grant privileges to the army".
hezbollah
Sayyed Nasrallah did not mean that his organisation has an air force (it has none, of course) stronger than that of Israel. Nor does Hezbollah receive financial support from Iran equivalent to that provided by the US to Israel, including "US forces ready to die for Israel". Sayyed Nasrallah counts on a group of experienced young men, with strong ideology and a high level of training, not looking for death but also not afraid of it. Hezbollah's goal is to stand against Israel and its allies who aim to eradicate the group: it is a matter of survival.

Hezbollah has proven its combat capability against the ISIS (Daesh) organisation in Lebanon and Syria, as well as against al-Qaeda and other jihadist Takfiri groups. The Lebanese group lost only one battle over the last six years of war, a battle on the hill of el-Eiss in April 2016. This defeat resulted from a lack of coordination between allied forces. That day the military plan was for allied forces to occupy the el-Eiss hill surrounding the city of el-Eiss; the city itself was to be liberated by Hezbollah. The allies withdrew from the hill without informing the forces in the city. This lack of communication caused the death of 28 Hezbollah members whose bodies are still unrecovered and buried on the battlefield.

But this military setback did not affect the performance of the party, which was able to conduct both guerrilla battles on its own against different groups, and other battles alongside classical armies (Syrian and Russian). Together with its allies and the Syrian Army, Hezbollah managed to liberate territories at least 14 times bigger than Lebanon (the size of Syria is around 180,000 sqkm, while Lebanon is 10,453 sqkm).
hezbollah
Hezbollah has proven its fidelity to Syria, whose President Bashar al-Assad rejected a recent offer from Saudi Arabia to rebuild everything the seven years of war has destroyed and to remain as president - with US backing - on the condition that he give up on Palestine and Hezbollah. Assad rejected the "generous" but poisoned offer - as he has described it in private.

The years of war taught Assad to distinguish between allies and countries such as Saudi Arabia who invested much to remove him from power at the cost of destroying the country: "An ideological ally (Hezbollah) is better than the richest of all countries because this real ally did not and would never abandon him, and has no ambitions in Syria but to see stability in the Levant and to prevent Takfiri Jihadists - supported by Arab and western countries - from creating a failed state", Assad repeats often to his visitors.
hezbollah
Indeed, Hezbollah has given orders to evacuate its military units from all Syrian cities and villages, without exception: no Hezbollah military forces are to remain in urban areas. They (military) will be present only on the borders between the two countries.

Hezbollah is now on focusing its military attention on the border with Israel, preparing for a war that may happen tomorrow, or that may never happen.

A writer affiliated with a western think tank recently asked the West to "wake up", claiming that Hezbollah is expanding into Europe and trading drugs to secure resources because Western pressure on Tehran threatens its sources of funding. Many other writers call for the elimination of Hezbollah as a threat to Lebanon. These articles reflect western ignorance about Hezbollah's thinking, its work, power, funding and goals.
hezbollah
Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese army and all the Lebanese security forces combined. Nevertheless, it would never consider capturing, dominating or otherwise controlling Lebanon for many reasons unrelated to its superior combat capability.

The party is aware that Lebanon is a multi-ethnic country (with 18 sects and religions) and that an "Islamic republic" is unattainable because its conditions are currently unfavourable. Hezbollah does not want to and indeed cannot meet the demands of a state and the well-being of its entire population because it does not have the resources of a state. The group is not in a position to manage a country with little resources, a country receiving and dependent on foreign (Arab and western) aid and wealth, a country that cannot permit itself to be isolated from the world as it would be if ruled by Hezbollah.
hezbollah
© https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Lebanese-general-arrested-for-drinking-tea-with-IDFThe “Tea Scandal” in the second Israeli war in 2006
Moreover, Hezbollah has agreed on an interior minister (Sunni), a political foe and friend of its greatest political enemy (Saudi Arabia), because it does not want to be responsible for the internal security of the country. Nor does the organization want to be accused of sectarianism, corruption or bribery, or of arresting Sunni jihadists on a sectarian basis.
hezbollah
Hezbollah believes it can continue to exist indefinitely only if the local population, and especially the Shiites in Lebanon, embrace the group and offer a safe environment for its operation. This is the key: Hezbollah's militants, families and supporters make up around 25% (Shia are estimated above 30% of the total sects and religion in Lebanon) of the Lebanese population.

Since 1945 the Lebanese state neglected the Shiite community, who lived for decades in worse conditions than residents of Palestinian refugee camps spread out all over Lebanon. When the opportunity arose for them to bear arms and build an identity, the community did not hesitate to take it.
hezbollah
Israel strengthened its raison d'être with its 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah arose first to fight Israel, and then to liberate Lebanese territory in a second phase. It then moved on to supporting the "axis of resistance" in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Today, the Shiites of Lebanon are no longer in need of the Taqiya (concealing or disguising one's beliefs, convictions, ideas, feelings, opinions, and/or strategies at a time of imminent danger) and shall not give up their arms in the face of any danger to their existence, domestic or international. No matter how seriously Israel and the US may threaten Shiite areas in Lebanon, they will not surrender the power, dignity and status they have achieved in Lebanon.

Hezbollah today employs tens of thousands of Shiites - in the military and social activities - who positively contribute to the shaky Lebanese economy. These tens of thousands working in the ranks of "Hezbollah" did not come to Lebanon from another planet, country, or continent. They are the people of the Lebanon, the people of the southern suburbs, Beirut, Jubail, Saida, Tyre, Bekaa, Baalbek, Hermel, and all parts of Lebanon. Thus, those who demand the abolition of Hezbollah are in effect calling for the destruction of an intrinsic and significant part of the population of Lebanon.

The US has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to counter Hezbollah in Lebanon and distort its image to no avail. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri asked in a letter to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (intercepted by US forces in Iraq on the 9thof July 2005), when he was targeting Shi'ites instead of the occupier during the first years of the US occupation of Iraq: has any Islamic State in history ever been successful in eliminating the Shiites?

Proofreading by: Maurice Brasher

If you read this reporting and you like it, please don't feel embarrassed to contribute and help fund it for as little as 1 Euro. Your contribution, however small, will help ensure its continuity. Thank you.
About Elijah Magnier

Veteran War Zone Correspondent and Senior Political Risk Analyst with over 35 years' experience covering the Middle East and acquiring in-depth experience, robust contacts and political knowledge in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and Syria. Specialised in terrorism and counter-terrorism, intelligence, political assessments, strategic planning and thorough insight in political networks in the region. Covered on the ground the Israeli invasion to Lebanon (1st war 1982), the Iraq-Iran war, the Lebanese civil war, the Gulf war (1991), the war in the former Yugoslavia (1992-1996), the US invasion to Iraq (2003 to date), the second war in Lebanon (2006), the war in Libya and Syria (2011 to date). Lived for many years in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria.