Den græske Premierminister Alexis Tsipras lover at Grækenland vil blive i euroen, men det giver EU beuraukraterne og IMF en enorm magt, og på grund af dette er den græske regering helt flad. Uden flere penge fra EU og IMF, vil den græske regering ikke være i stand til at betale dens regninger og stort set alle græske banker vil før eller senere, kollapse. I mellemtiden er resten af Europa på nippet til at opleve en hel del smerte i det markederne tager til genmæle på valgets resultat. Euroen har allerede på vej ned, og de fleste analytikere forventer europæiske obligations renter går i vejret og at europæiske aktier vil falde betydeligt når handlen åbner Mandag morgen.
Personligt så elsker jeg det faktum at det græske folk ikke bukkede under for presset der blev ydet af EU og IMF. Men midt i alle festlighedern, melder den kolde hårde virkelighed som er at ens valg er ekstremt begrænsede når man er løbet tør for penge.
Hvordan vil den græske regering betale dens regninger uden nogen penge?
Hvordan vil de insolvente græske banker operere uden penge?
Hvordan vil den græske økonomi fungere uden nogen penge?
Nu hvor det græske folk i stor stil har afslået kreditors krav, vil det blive meget interessant at følge hvad EU og IMF vælger at gøre. Før folkeafstemningen insisterede europæiske ledere at et insisterende 'Nej' ville sætte en ende på forhandlingerne og tvinge Grækenland til at forlade euroen.
"Dette gør to ting: det legitimiserer den græske regerings forbehold og efterlader bolden på Europas bane (retsal)," sagde ANZ Bank analytikere i en notits.
"Enten trækker Europa sig eller Grækenland går konkurs; over til dig Merckel."
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So would they actually let Greece go bankrupt?
It is going to be fascinating to watch what happens over the next few days. Right now, Greek banks are on life support. If the European Central Bank decides to pull the plug, they would essentially destroy the entire Greek banking system. The only thing that can keep Greek banks alive and kicking is more intervention from the ECB. The following comes from the New York Times...
Now that Greek voters have said no to the economic demands of its international creditors, the fate of the country's struggling banks is in the hands of the European Central Bank.Of much greater concern to the rest of the world is how financial markets are going to respond to all of this. As I write this article, things already appear to be unraveling. The following comes from CNBC...
Greece's banks, closed since last Monday because they are perilously low on cash, have been kept alive in recent weeks by emergency loans from the European Central Bank. On Monday, the central bank's policy makers plan to convene to determine how much longer they are willing to prop up the Greek banks, now that the country has essentially said no to the unpopular dictates of the other eurozone countries.
Germany's Dax is indicated sharply lower from Friday's close at around 4 percent, while the euro was down 2 percent against the yen as the news emerged. U.S. stocks are expected to open around 1 percent lower Monday, according to recent stock futures data.This could potentially become a "trigger event" that unleashes a wave of financial panic all over Europe. And once financial panic begins, it is very difficult to end.
What could be most important for those worried about contagion from the Greek crisis is how Portuguese, Spanish and Italian government bonds perform in Monday morning trade.
If these peripheral euro zone countries, often lumped in with Greece, suffer a sharp spike in yields, this could cause alarm about whether Greece leaving the currency might cause further contagion to other weaker euro zone economies.
If the EU and the IMF want to avoid a crisis, they could just give in to the new Greek government. But that would be politically risky for certain high profile European leaders. For instance, Angela Merkel would face a huge backlash back home if she conceded to the new Greek government now. And other German leaders are already calling the referendum result a "disaster"...
German politicians branded the result a 'disaster', with the country's economy minister Sigmar Gabriel Sigmar accusing Tsipras of 'tearing down the last bridges on which Greece and Europe could have moved towards a compromise'.And the president of the European Parliament, a German, told a German radio station over the weekend that a "no" vote would almost certainly mean that the Greeks will be forced out of the euro...
He added: 'Tsipras and his government are leading the Greek people on a path of bitter abandonment and hopelessness.'
"If after the referendum, the majority is a 'no,' they will have to introduce another currency because the euro will no longer be available for a means of payment," Martin Schulz, European Parliament president, said on German radio.That is pretty strong language, eh?
Here is yet another quote from Schulz...
"Without new money, salaries won't be paid, the health system will stop functioning, the power network and public transport will break down, and they won't be able to import vital goods because nobody can pay," he said.
What will they decide to do?
Will they give in, or will they force the Greeks to leave the euro?
If the Greeks do transition from the euro to a new currency, it will be a process that takes months (if not longer). You just can't change ATMs, computer systems, cash registers, etc. overnight. So a move to the drachma would not be as simple as many are suggesting...
British firms like De La Rue, which prints 150 currencies worldwide, are believed to have been contacted with a view to providing such services.And if Greece does leave, it will be a massive shock for global financial markets. Faith in the European project will be shattered, the euro will drop like a rock, bond yields all over the continent will rise to unsustainable levels and major banks all over Europe will fail.
It's done in great secrecy to prevent currency speculation. The other big problem is the logistical challenges of switching a currency. All ATMs, computers and other machinery of commerce that bears the euro symbol will have to be adjusted. It could, and would, take months.
I think that the following quote from Romano Prodi sums things up quite well...
Romano Prodi, former chief of the European Commission and Italy's ex-premier, said it is the EU's own survival that is now at stake as the botched handling of the Greek crisis escalates into a catastrophe. "If the EU cannot resolve a small problem the size of Greece, what is the point of Europe?"Meanwhile, we should all keep in mind that a financial crisis has already erupted over in Asia as well. Chinese stocks have lost 30 percent of their value in just the last three weeks. In fact, the amount of "paper wealth" wiped out in China over the past three weeks is approximately equivalent to "10 times Greece's gross domestic product"...
A dizzying three-week plunge in Chinese equities has wiped out $2.36 trillion in market value — equivalent to about 10 times Greece's gross domestic product last year.The great financial collapse of 2015 is well underway, and it should be a very interesting week for global markets.
But no matter what happens this week, we all need to keep in mind that this is just the tip of the iceberg.
A "perfect storm" is on the way, and we all need to get prepared for it while we still can.
Kommentar: The dust has hardly settled from the Greek people telling the EU 'OXI,' yet this coming week may be the start of an even bigger story. The story being the global economic system coming undone at the seams. Perhaps this Greek vote is the first domino to fall for the long awaited economic crash that has been looming for years...
In the meantime, the first casualty is a surprising one: Yanis Varoufakis has resigned as Greek finance minister. The Western Hive Mind, aka 'the Market Forces', approves, with the euro recovering from the initial shock of the 'No' vote thanks to this news.
Here is Varoufakis' last statement as Minister, from his blog: